Bitcoin's price continues to fall, dipping below the $57,000 mark, following weak U.S. jobs data and a decline in the crypto fear and greed index, which has now entered the "fear zone."
Weak US Jobs Data:
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $56,800 after the release of the latest U.S. private payrolls report from ADP. The report revealed that the U.S. economy added just 99,000 jobs in August, the lowest increase in over two years. This figure came in well below economists' expectations of 144,000 jobs, creating concerns over a slowdown in the labor market.
In addition to the ADP report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 4 that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.7 million in July, the lowest since 2021. This economic data suggests that Friday's nonfarm payroll report could show similarly weak numbers. Economists are predicting that the unemployment rate will stay at 4.3%, with 164,000 jobs added.
The weak jobs data could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would typically be seen as bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, both stocks and cryptocurrencies have performed well when the Fed cut rates, such as during the 2020 rally.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index Drops:
The crypto market sentiment has taken a downturn, with the crypto fear and greed index falling to a reading of 34, indicating "fear." This is the lowest the index has been in over a month, showing that investors are becoming increasingly worried about the economic outlook and the risk of a U.S. recession.
One major concern is the decline in institutional interest in Bitcoin. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for seven consecutive days, with over $802 million in assets leaving these funds. Ethereum ETFs have also experienced net outflows, losing $562 million since their inception.
Technical Indicators Raise Red Flags:
Bitcoin's technical indicators are also flashing warning signs. The cryptocurrency has been forming a series of lower highs, with prices peaking at $73,800, $72,000, and $70,000 in recent weeks. There is growing concern that Bitcoin may soon form a "death cross," where the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) intersect. A death cross is a bearish signal that often leads to further price declines.
The last time Bitcoin formed a death cross, in January 2022, the price dropped by over 67%. On the flip side, the formation of a golden cross in October 2023 led to a 170% surge to a record high of $73,800.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With Bitcoin currently trading at around $57,000 and the fear and greed index showing fear, the outlook for the crypto market remains uncertain. If the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut, it could provide some short-term relief for Bitcoin. However, the continued decline in institutional interest and negative technical indicators suggest that the market could face further downside in the coming weeks.
As always, investors should proceed with caution, keeping an eye on both economic data and technical market signals as they navigate the volatile crypto landscape.