Lucy Gazmararian, founder and managing partner of Token Bay Capital, shared insights in a CNBC interview on Wednesday, suggesting that Bitcoin (BTC) often moves in tandem with the stock market.
This trend has become more apparent as digital assets integrate further with traditional finance, Gazmararian noted. Analysts have identified a correlation between BTC and broader economic conditions due to geopolitical uncertainties and global monetary policies, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate adjustments.
However, in some instances, the trend may reverse. Investors have historically viewed Bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset and an inflation hedge. Gazmararian pointed out that these correlations can sometimes diverge, given BTC's fundamental differences from other asset classes like bonds and equities.
Bitcoin's Potential Peak by Late 2025
Despite Bitcoin’s 9% decline over the past month and ongoing U.S. inflation concerns, Token Bay Capital’s founder believes the Bitcoin bull run is far from over. Gazmararian referred to historical “four-year boom and bust cycles” in the crypto markets, suggesting that the current market retracement aligns with previous cycles, particularly post-halving.
“Declines of 10%, 15%, to 30% are typical of past cycles,” Gazmararian explained. Data from BiTBO and TradingView support this, showing slumps of up to 40% following Bitcoin’s quadrennial code changes, which are typically followed by significant rallies to new highs.
Charts indicate that BTC has not returned to pre-halving prices post-transition. Gazmararian predicted that if this historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could see a peak in late 2025.
Conversely, Gazmararian warned that the bullish trend might be questioned if Bitcoin’s value drops by more than 50% in the coming months, which would bring the price below $32,000 at current levels.
According to IntoTheBlock, over 84% of long-term BTC holders are currently in profit, while 71% of short-term investors are “out of the money” or experiencing losses. These short-term buyers acquired BTC at prices ranging from $52,490.68 to $71,050, meaning significant price declines could lead to substantial losses for these investors.
